At the end of July we summarised the national picture for the first half of the year — fewer transactions, prices that did not give way. Two detailed market analyses focused specifically on the capital have appeared since, and the Registry Agency has published its full quarterly figures. So we are returning to the subject, this time for Sofia alone.
The short version: the market has not lost buyers. It has lost quick decisions.
Registry Agency data show 8,874 sales recorded in Sofia in the second quarter of 2026, against 10,647 a year earlier — a decline of roughly 16.7% year on year.
For the first half as a whole, the capital recorded 16,403 sales versus 19,235 in the same period of 2025, a fall of close to 15%. Nationally the decline was 16.8%.
Sofia is contracting, then, but slightly more slowly than the country. This is a real decline, not a collapse: volumes remain close to where they sat before the 2024–2025 surge.
This is the gap that confuses a lot of owners.
According to NSI, the house price index for Sofia in the first quarter of 2026 was 16.0% higher year on year and 5.8% higher than the previous quarter. The breakdown is telling: new-build up 16.2%, existing housing up 15.8%. Official NSI figures for the second quarter are not yet out; they are due at the end of September.
Agencies measuring their own completed deals report more moderate growth. Imoteka's first-half analysis puts Sofia prices up around 10% year on year, with Varna at 6% and Plovdiv at 8%.
The two numbers do not contradict each other — they measure different things over different periods. NSI builds a harmonised index across the whole quarter; an agency reports average values from its own deal book. What matters is that both point the same way: prices are still rising, but the pace is easing.
From Imoteka's first-half analysis:
These are averages for completed transactions, not asking prices. The gap between the two is currently meaningful — and that gap is exactly where the negotiation lives.
Around 40% of transactions since the start of 2026 have closed below the advertised price. In 60% of those cases the concession was within €10,000.
Imoteka's chief executive Gergana Zarkova put it precisely: buyers "usually manage to obtain a concession within what is reasonable for the market right now — a commercial discount in the range of €5,000 to €10,000. The amounts are considerably larger for those sellers who got their asking price wrong from the outset."
That is the most practical conclusion of the whole half-year. A market with 15% fewer transactions does not punish price — it punishes mispricing. The difference between the two is several months on the market and, sometimes, tens of thousands of euro.
On every listing we take on, we start from completed transactions in the specific building, street and sub-district, not from what the neighbouring adverts are asking. An asking price is an opinion; a registered sale is a fact.
The second analysis — by New Estates, covering the company's own Sofia transactions in the first half — shows the structure of the primary market:
The clearest slowdown is among buyers with budgets up to €250,000. The reason is arithmetic: this is the band where the price of the property, the mortgage and the fit-out all land in one budget that no longer stretches.
Behaviour has shifted accordingly. Buyers now view six to seven properties on average before transacting, and in some cases 25–30. Yet only about 10% substantially change their original criteria. People are not giving up on what they want. They are simply searching longer until they find it at a price they accept.
New Estates' sales director Krasimir Dzhambazov sums it up: "The first half showed that the market is not losing buyers — it is losing rushed decisions."
One important caveat: the neighbourhood-level figures in that analysis reflect the specific projects the company sold, and the analysis itself states explicitly that they do not constitute a price index for the district as a whole. We treat them as an indication of demand structure, not as Sofia averages.
Around 70% of new-build buyers plan to finance the purchase with a mortgage once the project reaches Act 14 stage.
BNB data for June 2026 put the average interest rate on new housing loans at 2.41%, with an APR of 2.75% (June 2026 data; check current levels before deciding). New housing-loan business grew 28.4% year on year. Why Bulgarian rates are falling while the ECB raises its own, we covered separately.
If you are buying off-plan, it is worth knowing exactly what each construction stage means and when the bank releases funds — we set this out in detail in our guide to Act 14, Article 181, Act 15 and Act 16.
Construction has not stopped. In the second quarter of 2026, permits were issued nationally for 2,216 residential buildings containing 11,499 dwellings — up 8.2% year on year, per NSI. Over the same quarter, completed dwellings numbered 5,932, averaging 64.2 sq m.
Over the next 18–24 months, in other words, more finished product will keep reaching a market that has become selective. That is the environment in which project quality starts to show up in price more strongly than location alone.
If you are selling in Sofia. Your starting price determines almost everything that follows. A realistic asking price today settles with a €5,000–€10,000 concession; an inflated one is corrected by far more, after months on the market. Get the paperwork ready in advance — delays at the notary cost buyers.
If you are buying. Your position is stronger than it was in 2025, though not unlimited. Nearly every second transaction involves a discount. Spend it on things that matter — price, timing, fit-out — and argue from completed-transaction data, not asking prices.
If you are investing. Around 30% of buyers in the first half acquired property as an investment. With rates below 3% and supply rising, choosing the right project now matters more than timing the market.
Figures are indicative and current as of August 2026. If you would like a specific valuation for your property, or a breakdown of completed transactions in your neighbourhood — call us or come by the office. We will sit down with the numbers and go through them together.
