On 3 August 2026 the National Statistical Institute (NSI) published its figures for building permits issued and construction started in the second quarter. These are the earliest signal of what supply will reach the market in 18 to 30 months' time — and this year the signal points both ways.
This piece updates our H1 2026 housing market report, which looked at demand — transactions, prices and discounts. Here we look at the other side: the new-build pipeline. All data below is from NSI, as at August 2026.
In the second quarter, local authorities issued permits for:
Year on year — against Q2 2025 — permits for residential buildings are up 8.2%, the dwellings in them up 14.0%, and their floor area up 3.6%.
That annual increase looks solid until you compare it with the previous quarter. In January–March 2026 the annual growth rate was 10.5%; it is now 8.2%. This is the second consecutive slowdown.
Against Q1 2026 the picture is clearer:
| Indicator (residential buildings) | vs Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Number of permits | −3.7% |
| Dwellings in them | −15.2% |
| Gross floor area | −22.1% |
So the number of projects is easing slightly, but their size is falling sharply. At 2,216 buildings and 11,499 dwellings, the average Q2 project works out at roughly 5.2 dwellings per building and about 118 sq m of GFA per dwelling (derived from the NSI figures).
This is characteristic behaviour for a market in the late phase of its cycle: developers are not stopping, but they are choosing smaller, faster schemes that can be sold through in a shorter window and do not require long-term financing of a large unsold inventory.
By number of permits issued for new residential buildings, the regions rank as follows:
By number of dwellings, however, the capital remains well ahead: 2,878 dwellings are due to be started in Sofia, 1,941 in Plovdiv, 1,660 in Burgas, 1,316 in Varna and 489 in Pernik.
The gap between the two rankings is the point. Plovdiv is permitting more buildings, but smaller ones; Sofia fewer, but larger. This is not a statistical curiosity — it reflects a different market structure. In the capital, land is expensive enough that only high density justifies the investment, while in Plovdiv and the regions around Sofia schemes of three to six apartments still work.
In the second quarter, construction began on 1,774 residential buildings with 8,913 dwellings and 1,047,174 sq m of GFA.
Against the first quarter, the number of residential buildings started is up 7.6%, but the dwellings in them are down 12.6% and the floor area down 10.3%. Year on year all three are positive: +8.2% for buildings, +10.5% for dwellings, +8.7% for floor area.
The regional pattern repeats: most residential building starts were in Plovdiv (333), followed by Sofia region (222) and Sofia city (202).
If there is a decisive cooling anywhere, it is in the office segment.
Permits for administrative buildings numbered 15 — unchanged from a year earlier — but their gross floor area was 56.0% smaller. For construction starts the drop is sharper still: −30.4% by count and −53.2% by floor area year on year.
In other words, new office schemes have not disappeared, but they are half the size. That is consistent with the contraction in office space let in the capital during the first half of the year, and with tenants moving to more compact, better-specified space.
Supply is not disappearing — it is being redistributed. Annual growth is still positive, so projects will keep coming. But a smaller average scheme means fewer units per building, less choice within any one project, and the good layouts going faster.
In practice:
The shrinking average size of new schemes is good news for owners of completed homes in established neighbourhoods. Buyers who do not want to wait two and a half years come back to the resale market — and over the coming quarters there will be less competition from new-build in any given location.
That is not grounds for a higher asking price. Transaction volumes remain well below last year's, and more than half of all sales still close below the asking price. The advantage is a shorter time to completion, not a better price.
For every property we take on, we run a comparative analysis of completed sales in the same neighbourhood — including what new construction has been permitted and started nearby, and when it is likely to reach the market. When a client is buying new-build, checking the building permit, the stage certificates and the developer's standing is part of our ordinary work on the transaction, not a separate service.
Construction is not stopping — it is shrinking. Annual growth in permits has decelerated for a second consecutive quarter, the average project is getting smaller, Plovdiv has overtaken the capital on permit numbers, and the office pipeline has halved by floor area. For buyers this means less choice within any single project and more value in checking early.
If you are considering a new-build purchase, or selling in a neighbourhood where construction is coming, call us or come into the office. We will look at the specific scheme, review the documents and tell you what the numbers say about that location.
NSI data for the second quarter of 2026, published on 3 August 2026. Indicators are indicative and change with each new quarter.
